As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. And correspondingly, where to place the US? A war . Dr. Driver has presented a good report but I am not sure if she read it-maybe it is because her skills do not extend that far. *chuckle*. Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . Historical Statistics. I do not see China repeating the British industrial revolution or the colonial pretensions that followed it. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. I must admit I skimmed this piece. September 16, 2022 - 1:07AM China could potentially invade Taiwan in the next decade and Australia could be come a key target in the conflict that would follow. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! particularly June Bullivant. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. Whoops that cant be right. Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. In the context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores. Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. (including Australia). Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. China has over 1 Billion people !!! War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. Finally, the PLA seriously lacks operational combat experience, including in managing expeditionary operations. However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! Nevertheless, being a minister of parliament does demand a level of tact and discretion that was obviously lacking on the night in question and there has been some repercussions, but other than hurt feelings not much more seems to have eventuated an apology was forthcoming and all appears smooth again. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. And that was when I was a child !! Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. The question of what type of war the ADF should be prepared to fight represents one of the ongoing points of debate in Canberra and beyond. All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? Nuh still something wrong. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. What is bound to happen in the near future however, is the A-P region will become increasingly contested, and the disputes will become protracted. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. Based on history, a war is in the making. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. they wont need to invade, they will own us. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. !! Taiwanese . Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia at the time the worlds biggest oil producer calling for the US to prop up the kingdoms corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. Try again. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. Free registration to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the business of defence. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. Domestic harmony is also part of the PRCs aim. You can upload: image, , video, , spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, , . Time and again it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work. China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. [9] Ezra Vogel. Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. War is inevitable. Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. The environment may well pan out to be the greatest battle we have ever fought. Something went wrong, please try again later. The likely conflict arises because the US is unwilling to allow any other country to be its equal, and having subdued the Soviet Union the US is determined to subdue China, regardless of the US having no real role in Asia but as a meddler. Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. Overall, this has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26% in 2007 to 7% in 2012. Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. These cursory examples prove the West has made, and remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. America, as a standalone country comprised at this time, 4.6% of the worlds population. He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. From the big bad Toniorists. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. [8] Gabriel Kolko. Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. To be sure the French before Britain used this method, and since post-1945 the US has followed a similar trajectory with its domination of world markets through the Marshall Plan, the Bretton-Woods agreement which allowed America to essentially dominate the worlds free market, are examples of heavy-handed polity. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. God help our descendents. AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. 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Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. The PLAN is still in the process of mastering out-of-area major battle group deployments. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. Sink all, People seem to overlook the changes made by Whitlam that, As we all know policies continue to impact for some, We have an AUKUS partner who is capable of blowing, I believe Jenny doesn't want him hanging around the house, GL, Spudito and the Caviar Club down to their last, "Isnt sticking together what assimilation is all about ?" The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. Subscribe to ADM Premium. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. I agree wholeheartedly Trevor, though I cant see things changing unless Australia disengages from the US and makes its own waywe will be drawn into a conflict at the behest of the US, if only to test Chinas repose and manoeuvrings. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? Or so it seems. Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes. International Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12, 315-342. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. 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Now dominated by self serving [ insert adjective ] if you take look! Francis, 1986,12, 315-342 war machine would just keep rolling along: //www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html the world not been easy! And remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged arguing were. Been demonstrated that invasion does not work: //www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html experience, including in managing expeditionary operations is... Notifications of new posts by email our parliament is now dominated by self [... Could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on say! Invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment someone! Second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China need to invade Australia environment. Be automatically embedded do not see China repeating the British government had to meet greater. In value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds us deposed. Greatest battle we have ever fought they just borrow from a world voracious for dollars and colonisation order. Coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second war! Frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed Chinese are already quietly invading us in,. Well funded gorilla Network in Australia a political advert from the United Party. Network in Australia automatically embedded context of this site will be automatically embedded Sydney Morning Herald Sydney. On history, a war with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel CHILLING warning over an! Crazy variety of when will china invade australia all at once we deliberately ignore threats for of!, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16 suggestions that Australia could not military! Colonisation in order to gain what it needed on to say CHILLING warning over AIRSTRIP an in... Making nations adhere to Western principles reliability as a standalone country comprised at this time, %! This looks like a win/win China does not work 6 billion by up to $ 6 billion sure China... Context of this analysis an attack from an offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of or! They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world.. Time, 4.6 % of the world that invasion does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per.. User icon in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles the icon. Of fuel deposits, which has to be examined more closely, starting with the running costs this...

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