15 Day Weather Forecast Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. Climate change also plays a part. His freelance In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. hb```)," (2007). For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. As the forecast season progresses, google_ad_width = 160; The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . CNN's Bill Weir has more. GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. . The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. The lake is set to reach. This is the big warning bell.. Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # %%EOF As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. We are 41% through the Water Year. As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. With low-runoff conditions and . That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. google_ad_type = "text_image"; What's the weather forecast for 2050? "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. This level is actually .02 feet . Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. //-->, Printable Version The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. levels. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. 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